I hesitate to write this, not only because it is an incredible display of hubris for which I am sure to receive a horrible dose of karmic retribution, but also because it is a foolish competitive move to put the strategies that have been successful for me out in the open for anyone (including future leaguemates) to see. Additionally, I am making the classic error of attributing my success to my own skills rather than to luck, which, in all likelihood, played a larger role. May the fantasy football gods have mercy on my soul1 and may my readers forgive this brief bout of braggadocios blogging.
Having said that, one of the few things I like more than fantasy football championships is blogging, so—against my better judgment—I will share the secrets that helped me win 2 out of my last 3 years of fantasy football, an accomplishment that I should really be ashamed of, given the amount of time and energy invested and the more productive avenues towards which I could have directed said time and energy.
My strategy revolved around recognizing how common cognitive biases manifest in fantasy football, and actively working to counteract them. Here is how I did it:
Don’t Get Attached: Beware The Endowment Effect
The endowment effect, when you place an irrationally high value on something you “own” is among the more persistent decision making biases. It is why you refuse to throw away old tshirts you rarely wear and why you foolishly keep Ryan Tannehill on your roster for three quarters of a season in the hopes that he will turn it around.
Any time I weigh a decision between a player on my team and a player on the waiver wire, I assume I am falling prey to the endowment effect, and always go in favor of dropping my own player. This weighs double for players I have drafted or had on my team for multiple years in a row. Never get too attached to your own players. To counteract the endowment effect, adopt a posture of unrelenting disdain for your own team.
I Can’t See Your Halo, Halo, Halo
A second bias that comes into play with fantasy football is the Halo Effect, when feeling positively about one aspect of a person influences your perception of an unrelated aspect. The halo effect is most often used in relation to attractiveness—if you find a person physically attractive, you are more likely to ascribe positive personality characteristics to them (thinking they are especially smart, competent, etc.).
I happen to be a die hard New England Patriots fan. Thus, I am inclined to put a halo around the heads of all New England players, assuming that they are better fantasy players than they actually are. Recognizing this, I stringently avoid having any Patriots players on my roster. I know that I will be irrational when it comes to starting them, refusing to drop them, or trading them. I want them to succeed in real life, but I know that I will never be able to objectively evaluate their fantasy worth.
Anchors Aweigh!
The final bias to keep in mind is the anchoring effect, our tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information we hear. In a negotiation, it can often be a good idea to throw out the first offer, because subsequent offers will be anchored to that initial value. In fantasy football, a player’s draft position serves as an anchor for the entire season. Just because someone was drafted highly does not mean that player is worthy of their lofty draft status. In my experience, people evaluate players based on the initial anchor—their draft status—for far too long. In fantasy football and in life, be willing to take new information into account.
Footnotes:
- “May God have mercy on your soil” is a nice blessing to give to a farmer.
Intersections 